Day 64

Today I worked on my paper

Day 63

Today I worked on my paper

Day 62

Today I worked on my paper

Day 61

Today I had an orchestra event so I was absent

Day 60

Today I worked on my paper

Day 59

Worked on my paper

Day 58

Absent today in class, worked on paper at home

Day 57

Today I worked on my paper

Day 56

Listened to a podcast on the history of power and how that applies in Survivor (the 49 laws of power).

Worked on my paper as well

Day 55

Ironically, Survivor is not the first time that strangers have been placed in a novel environment, split into "tribes" and then told to work together within the tribe and against the other tribe and then ultimately "merged".

This actually first occurred in the Robber Cave Study.

These are some excerpts from what I read up on it: 

Muzafer Sherif is a famous social psychologist important to the psychological understanding of groups and its members.  His main contribution is known as Realistic Conflict Theory, and accounts for group conflict, negative prejudices, and stereotypes as being the result of competition between groups for desired resources.

The field experiment involved two groups of twelve-year-old boys at Robber’s Cave State Park, Oklahoma, America.

The twenty-two boys in the study were unknown to each other and all from white middle-class backgrounds.  They all shared a Protestant, two-parent background. None of the boys knew each other prior to the study. The boys were randomly assigned to one of two groups, although neither was aware of the other’s existence. 

At the camp the groups were kept separate from each other and were encouraged to bond as two individual groups through the pursuit of common goals that required co-operative discussion, planning and execution. During this first phase, the groups did not know of the other group's existence. The boys developed an attachment to their groups throughout the first week of the camp, quickly establishing their own cultures and group norms, by doing various activities together like hiking, swimming, etc. 

Sherif now arranged the Competition Stage where friction between the groups was to occur over the next 4-6 days. In this phase it was intended to bring the two groups into competition with each other in conditions that would create frustration between them. A series of competitive activities (e.g. baseball, tug-of-war etc.) were arranged with a trophy being awarded on the basis of accumulated team score. 

At first, the prejudice against the other team was only verbally expressed, such as taunting or name-calling. As the competition wore on, this expression took a more direct route. One group burned the other's flag. Then the next day, the second group ransacked the first's cabin, overturned beds, and stole private property. The groups became so aggressive with each other that the researchers had to physically separate them.

During the subsequent two-day cooling off period, the boys listed features of the two groups. The boys tended to characterize their own in-group in very favorable terms, and the other out-group in very unfavorable terms.

Keep in mind that the participants in this study were well-adjusted boys, not street gang members. This study clearly shows that conflict between groups can trigger prejudice attitudes and discriminatory behavior. This experiment confirmed Sherif's realistic conflict theory.

This could help build upon the theory of forming an in-group on Survivor or targeting those seen as an out-group. Strong players would make similarities between themselves and the people they want in their alliance to build a stronger relationship, even if those similarities are completely arbitrary. 

Day 54

Today I read about the Predicted Value Outcome Theory.

This is what I am turning to to fall under the broader category of "serving someone else's self-interest"

This theory can be used with first impressions.

"Conversely, predicted outcome value theory (POV) posits that interactants’ goals of achieving positive relational out- comes provide a more accurate and complete account of both com- munication behavior and uncertainty reduction attempts in begin- ning interactions."

 This basically means that a person makes a split second judgement about another person. If that judgement is positive, than the first person will actively pursue a relationship with that person because they will believe that the individual will help further them in the future.

Conversely, if the judgement is negative and the first person believes that second person will NOT serve their personal interest in the future, than the first person will try to not form a relationship. This can be done by limiting communication, avoiding, etc...

Day 53

people need to be aware of their competitors strengths in order to exploit the weaknesses.

In episode 3 of Koah Rong, two individuals, an MIT graduate and an ER doctor, were completely blindsided when the MIT grad (Elisabeth) got voted off. One reason when you break down the episodes that you can point to was the language Liz and Peter used when speaking to their fellow tribe mates.

They were talking about their tribe mates like they were sheep that they were trying to lead to the slaughter. And it wasn't only like they were referring to them as that only in confessional. They were deliberately trying to simplify the vote so that the others "would understand it."

The people around them hated the way they were being talked to and decided to vote them off as a result. This shows that what you believe to be a weakness in your competitors game (their "lack" of a brain) could lead to a reaction on your part that would cause them to come after you.

Day 51

Today I listened to yet another Survivor podcast breaking down the latest Survivor episode.

Day 50

Today I mainly focused on a Duke Focus application.

I am applying to an Islamic and Middle East study group. That means I have to do a TON of research on problems I honestly have no idea about. I learned about the Syrian Refugee crisis and the civil war and ISIS today. This is also going to help me for when I vote in the primary on Tuesday.

I also listened to a podcast on Survivor and the steps a person needs to tae to not get voted off.

Rule 1:  Scheme and Plot

Rule 2:  Don’t Scheme and Plot Too Much / Keep Your Scheming Secret

Rule 3:  Be Flexible

Rule 4:  Don’t Let Your Emotions Control You

Rule 5:  Pretend to be Nice / Play the Social Game

Rule 6:  Don’t Be Too Much of a Threat

Rule 7:  Vote out the weak, Then the Strong, Then Weak, Then Strong

Day 49

Today I listened to a podcast about alliances in Survivor.

Why is it that an alliance could so called "self-destruct?"

In one example, on Survivor 32 episode 2, a 4 person alliance decided to vote out one of their own instead of voting out the 5th person who was on the bottom. Regardless or not of if this was the right decision you can look at the inner social part of that.

Jennifer, a member of the 4 person alliance, went to Alecia, who was not apart of the alliance, and proposed an all girls alliance. When the remaining members of the alliance heard of it they decided to vote out Jennifer instead. Though Jennifer decided to pass it off as "just talk" there is a reason it stuck with them. How long should an alliance wait before they act on "just talk?" Should they wait until the plotting and scheming becomes actual flipping?

Doubt can be a more powerful emotion than assurance. If one of my friends says something to hurt me, I might be more inclined to take offense to it than if someone I know hates me insults me. And that is because of expectations.

The alliance did not expect Jennifer to perform an action that went against the rest of the group so when she did it came as more of a shock than someone who they knew was already against them (Alecia).

That is why a person can be more inclined to act on impulse when one of their own alliance members does something to disrupt the flow.

Ie this is a real life example of "better the devil I know than the devil I don't."

Day 48

Today I read my book (The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey) and worked on my paper.

Day 47

I continued to look into the ideas behind dramturgy and this is what I came up with:

There are seven important elements Goffman identifies with respect to the "performance" an individual gives in presenting themselves:
in the part one is playing is important, even if it cannot be judged by others.

1. Belief The front or 'the mask' is a  technique for the performer to control the manner in which the audience perceives him or her.
2. Dramatic realization is a portrayal of aspects of the performer that s/he wants the audience to know.
3. idealization. Audiences often have an 'idea' of what a given situation (performance) should look like and performers will try to carry out the performance according to that idea^.
4. Maintenance of expressive control refers to the need to stay 'in character'. The performance has to make sure that s/he sends out the correct signals and quiets the occasional compulsion to convey misleading ones that might detract from the performance.
5. Misrepresentation refers to the danger of conveying a wrong message. The audience tends to think of a performance as genuine or false, and performers generally wish to avoid having an audience disbelieve them (whether they are being truly genuine or not).
6. Deception. refers to the concealment of certain information from the audience^.
   

This all goes back to what I have referred to as the single most important part in a survivor game. Perception. It is known that people will be scheming, but if you can control how others view YOUR scheming, then you will be infinitely ahead.

That is why I like to say how in SURVIVOR, perception is 9/10 of the law.

Day 46

Based on the judges that have responded to me, I think I am officially having to really focus my report on the sociological and psychological aspects of survivor as opposed to the game theory I have studied.


I still want to include the game theory a little bit because I have put in the time and research and find it interesting, but the judges that have responded to me all have a background in psychology and so I need that to be my main focus.



I also continued reading my AP Psychology textbook today on the topic of "presentation of self" as discussed last blog post. 

Day 45

The first few days of Survivor have always been the most important in my opinion. That is when relationships form, and ultimately Survivor is a game of relationships.

A lot of these relationships can either begin or fail to begin with the initial impressions people get of one another.

In discovering what sociologists have said in terms of first impressions, I came across one of the most prominent sociologists of all time, and the man who was labeled as the most "influential sociologists of the 20th century."  Erving Goffman wrote a book called "The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life."

This book pushed forward the concept of dramaturgy. Basically, Goffman pushed "theatre" as the metaphor for how we conduct our daily lives. In dramaturgical sociology it is argued that human interactions are dependent upon time, place, and audience. In other words, to Goffman, who we are or become is a dramatic effect emerging from the immediate scene being presented.

 If say, a girl with crazy hair and hippie clothes introduces herself to me, I might take elements of the impression I have gathered from her and morph my follow up comments so that they are "cool" or "agreeable" with how I have interpreted her to be.

Goffman claims that human beings choose how to present themselves to another based on cultural values, norms, and beliefs or the perceived ones.. The goal of this presentation of self is acceptance from the audience through carefully conducted performance. If the actor succeeds, the audience will view the actor as he or she wants to be viewed. 

In the case of everyday life, the "audience" is the person we are interacting with.

Day 43

Today I worked on my report.

Having a difficult time with the direction.

Day 42

Today I listened to a podcast specifically entitled "An Intro into the Sociology of Survivor with David Lay."

David Lay is a Criminology and Sociology professor at Mississippi State University. In the podcast, he really broke down how big a role perception plays in any given season of Survivor by drawing parallels of how perception plays a role in real life.

David Lay referenced a great philosopher who one of the best Survivor players talked about when he played the game. This philosopher was Charles Horton Cooley. Charles Horton Cooley famously stated "I am who I think you think I am."

I decided to look up Charles Horton Cooley and have found some really interesting things.

Cooley proposed "the looking glass self" concept. This basically states how our identity, our personal self, only evolves out of other people's perception of us and how we interpret those perceptions.There are 3 components to the looking-glass self. These are:

1. We imagine how we must appear to others.
2. We imagine and react to what we feel their judgment of that appearance must be.
3. We develop our self through the judgments of others.

So, for example:

I wake up, get dressed, and brush my hair. Because I have done everything I need to do in order to be "acceptable" I believe in my mind that I should look fine. However, when I approach a mirror and see that I missed a button on my shirt, I in turn button that shirt. My buttoning of the shirt was my response to the mirror's perception of my appearance.

This concept to me has actually changed my stance on the game a tiny bit, but not very much (more so, it has modified).

I have always taken the stance that "perception is reality." Because even if I play the most cutthroat game in the history of Survivor, if other people don't think that I have played the most cutthroat game ever then they won't award me the million dollars.

I have changed that perception. I now believe there are two realities. There's a personal reality and other people's realities.

-Your reality is your perception of other people's perception (which in turn influences your game and how you adjust/make moves accordingly)

-Other people's realities are the perception they have of your moves and attitude.


Both of these realities feed off each other and are what shapes either a winning or losing game.

Day 41

My second judge responded to me! YAY! Mrs. Langat, the TAG counselor, is a Big Brother superman. She said she would be interested in judging my thesis. This is great for me because she is a counselor and her everyday job consists of listening to people and learning how to work with them. She also is aware of the elements of strategy and social adaptability that go into Survivor because many of those same elements manifest in Big Brother.

I am still waiting to hear back from my third judge, Betina Fehr, but I am planning on going ahead and setting my date for my presentation.

Day 40

Began working on my survivor thesis paper. Bulletin points that i really want to hit on. These include:

• Season 27 White Rock situation
• Different types of emotion
• Nash equilibrium

IDEAS FOR PERSONAL STRATEGIC SHOW:

-Every contestant starts out with a certain amount of money and somehow some interactions occur to where one winner walks away with all of the money.

-saboteur!

Day 39

I contacted other potential judges for my thesis today and filled out my thesis judge list. The people I have contacted include:
Mr. Brown, a psychology teacher who also has experience in game theory.
Betina Fehr, a psychiatrist who works with diagnosing veterans.
Kayleen Langat, a counselor who is also a big Big Brother fan. (Big Brother is another CBS reality show that is very similar to Survivor)

I think these judges have roots in psychology so can cover the persuasion aspect of my thesis well, but they are diverse enough to where they can cover the other aspects of my thesis (Survivor, and game theory).

day 38

Today, I landed my first thesis judge. Mr. Brown! He is an AP psychology teacher and as part of that curriculum he talks about game theory.

I also today created a schedule in order to guarantee I do not procrastinate. These self-imposed deadlines will help me make sure my thesis is as great as it can possibly be instead of rushing to try to cram it all in or spending too much time researching and not enough time actually creating the final product.

Day 37

The new cast of Survivor was released! Today I continued to go through their bios and videos to see if their character traits could influence their placement in the game. Here are some of my thoughts.


BRAINS

PETER BAGGENSTOS

Okay, this guy looks weirdly like Obama. I'm glad he knows it because HOLY CRAP its ridiculous. I also greatly admire his tiny patches of gray hair and felt a strong kindred spirit when he said he watched 4 youtube videos on building fire and thought it looked hard so he gave up. His voice sounds like it belongs to a 20 year old really struggling to work through a math problem in college though. Now, clearly this guy should have what it takes to go far. Smart, handsome, not "bro-ey" (God forbid according to his bio). But I think he is SO clearly your winner that he is going to be a target amongst this cast of superfans. 

prediction: early merge boot

JOSEPH DEL CAMPO

Excuse me while I pray for the next 20 minutes that I look as good as he does when I am in my 70s. I honestly would have guessed he was 20 years younger until I saw that he listed an iPod as one of the items he would bring on the island. Then I was reminded that he truly is not "of this generation." He's as tan as a nice strip of leather, has a double last name, and I am so ready to watch him on my screen. He seems so personable and incredibly fit but, unfortunately, perception is 9/10 of the law on Survivor and the gray hair alone I think leaves him in an unwinnable situation.

prediction: early pre-merge (Come on cast of superfans! Don't be that predictable!)

AUBRY BRACCO

This girl was a hard one for me. When I watched her video, I was totally sold and thought I might have my winner pick. But the more I read and watched, she seemed a little too preoccupied with the notion that she is "quirky and weird and omg I'm not like anybody else." Hate to break it but that is annoying. Her personal claim to fame is that her name means "leader of the elves." Don't even get me started on all of the reasons why that should NOT be your claim to fame. How many elves have you led exactly? Did you name yourself when you popped out of your mother's womb? Or did you spring into this world through the pointed ear of an elf? My name means "one who is like God" and even I wouldn't put my name's meaning as a claim to fame.

prediction: This is probably my most volatile prediction. Because she could be out early. But I'm going with late merge. Once she gets to the merge she's virtually untouchable. 

Elisabeth Markham

I was 100% sold on her. Ready to sign the paper as my winner's pick. But then she goes and picks damn Parvati as the contestant she is most like. NO GIRL NO! Quantative Strategists who graduate from MIT are supposed to be fans of the show! Not the generic recruit who are told to mark Parvati! Elisabeth! Come on girl! I really thought we were supposed to have a good thing going here. 

prediction: late merge boot. 

BRAWN

Darnell Hamilton

Move out of the way Brice Isaiah, J'Tia, Drew Christy, Zane Knight, and Wendy Jo! The pantheon of "gone too soon" is about to be crowned a new leader. I am in love. Sign me up. I am ON board the Darnell Hamilton train. The things he would bring on the island are a pair of sunglasses to hide from the ugly contestants (check), iPod to tune the haters out (double check) and a pack of cigarettes (triple check because we might have the modern day Shane Powers experiencing withdrawals right before our eyes). 

prediction: early pre-merge (as I wallow in tears on my couch)

CYDNEY GILLON

 I cannot with anybody who has alter egos. I didn't even realize that was one of my "things" but after watching her video, it is totally one of my "things." She was great at talking to the camera but a girl who has chosen to make a career as a body builder is just so fundamentally different from who I am that I will never be able to relate. Also, she has already declared that she hates my kind by renouncing all "overly-weak" people. Sorry Cydney, we just weren't meant to be.

prediction: Too much of a physical threat and the alter egos are just too weird if they come out. Late pre-merge boot.

Scott Polard

I wanted to hate him. I really really did. But it seems like we got another Cliff Robertson. Just a nice, tall guy. THAT BEING SAID. I can totally see this guy having anger issues. Can't you? I was hoping for a Jeff Kent kind of guy who is willing to go hard at the game and fight 150,000% but unfortunately, Scott does not seem like the guy. However, he's not going to hide he was in the NBA. Smart. Everybody would have assumed it anyway.

prediction: mid pre-merge boot.

Day 36

The new cast of Survivor just went up! As I have previously established in blog posts, personality is incredibly hard to change. It is nearly impossible in fact. It takes so much hard work under normal conditions that under conditions such as the ones in Cambodia, it becomes even more difficult to hide who you truly are. That is why I have decided to give some comments on some of these new players to see if their personality quirks could maybe shape their placement in the game (it is after all a social game).
BRAWN

Alecia Holden

For a girl who claims to be MagYver levels of incredible, she sure does have the most boring job in the world. I mean, come on, real estate agent? If I could list the top 20 most generic reality TV jobs ever and that would have come in at number two right behind "pharmaceutical sales rep." She says she will be most like Kass. Uh huh honey. Sorry, but NOBODY can ever be the queen.

prediction: I want to say first boot but she is on brawn and they might not lose the first challenge. So I'll go with the easy "early pre-merge"

KYLE JASON

I am literally terrified of him. Is "Bounty Hunter" the scariest job description in this history of Survivor? Probably. That being said, I loved him iso much. He seemed shockingly intelligible and it is a well known fact that "one uppers" are the most annoying things on the planet so I know he is smart. If this truly is the second coming of Russel Hantz, I think we are in for a great season.

prediction: loosing finalist

BEAUTY

Nick Maiorano

Well well well. We have who might possibly be the most polarizing contestant (I have no grounds to state that, I just feel that is what will be the case.) Definitely the most narcissistic (oh wait he's not narcissistic because he's at least faking his interest while everyone else actually IS disinterested). And definitely the most obnoxious person on the cast to listen to. BUT I hold the faith with Mr. Nick. And that is because he is probably the biggest superfan on this season. Everyone else has supposedly seen every episode, but he's actually blogged about it. He legitimately knows the game inside and out. And anyone who refers to Courney Yates and Jonathan Penner in their bios, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. The good thing about this guy is that he's either going to flame out spectacularly in the first few episodes or flame out later, desperately trying to pull the biggest move this game has ever seen.

p.s. anyone get a Max Dawson-ish vibe from him?

prediction: merge boot. 

CALEB REYNOLDS

 BYE BYE BYE *NSYNC plays softly in the background over my wails.* Of ALL the people to cast from BB16 WHY Beast Mode Cowboy? (That being said, take this CBS as my personal thank you note that I am not typing Frankie Grande on here). I wish it could have been Zach Rance. But whatever. It is what it is. I would love these superfans to vote Caleb out as a joke but I know that is not going to happen. Caleb played a blindly loyal game on Big Brother and is a known physical guy who should contribute in challenges. I think he will be dragged along by someone. The only reason I think he will be cut before the final tribal council is for one of two reasons: 1) he is too likable and nobody wants that at the end or 2) someone takes a shot at him as someone's right hand. 

prediction: I think he and Nick will be a tag team but Caleb is going to go further and be a late merge boot.

JULIA SOKOLOWSKI

First of all, I heavily relate to this girl so I'm going to be nice. She says she has seen every episode of Survivor and applied the moment she turned 18. I want her to do well simply because of that. I would love her to kick the "Natalie Tenerelli and Spencer Duhmn" legacy of young people doing horribly. However, as I have previously stated, perception is 9/10 of the law. And I just ultimately don't see anybody giving her credit for any move in the end, even if it is deserved, simply because of her age. As well, the first few days are so desperately tied to physical performance and social bonds that I am not sure Julia will be able to excel in either category due to her young age.

prediction: losing finalist

TAI TRANG

 I know people are already gung ho over him, but man I was not ready for him. I expected him to be annoying as all get out and the person I would simply have to put up with. LIKE JANE BRIGHT! The "fan favorite" that made me want to sit in a dark room and listen to a CD recording of nails on a chalkboard for hours. But he was strangely endearing in his video. As long as there are not too many moments with him, I think I can handle it.

prediction: pre-merge