Day 21

Today I finished my application for the Duke November 1 deadline.

I read about Conflict and Cooperation.

Game theory is considered the study of rational behavior. The problem is: how can we determine what is rational? There is nothing less rational about one person's desires than another. There is nothing more rational about me wanting to throw away every DVD I own as opposed to just throwing away one DVD. Therefore, rational behavior is determined as consistency. In this way, when you act consistently you are interpreted as trying to maximize the value of your utility. Utility is what allows players to assign a numerical value to every possible outcome. This goes away when a person does not act consistently.

One issue that Survivor players have to deal with while playing the game is given a specific situation: there are two people, neither of whom are in your alliance. One flip flops all over the place, sometimes voting with you and your allies, the other one having never voted with you before. You have the numbers to vote out either player. What should a person do in this situation?

Many would say you should take out the person who has never voted with you before, because at least the possibility exists for cooperation with the other player. However, in order to produce a playing field with the most rational players, which means their actions would be the easiest to predict, you should take out the wild card.

That is why this season, season 31, has a wild card in a girl named Abi Maria. She flips every single vote, but people are still trying to work with her. THIS IS BAD. She should be everyone's target, because her behavior is unpredictable and impossible to plan around.

Day 20

Today I worked on my Duke application for November 1 deadline.

Day 19

Continued reading my book on game theory. Also began watching season 7, Pearl Islands, of Survivor. I have never seen this season before and I specifically want to highlight this season in my report as it was a groundbreaking one in terms of strategy.

Day 18

I went to California over the weekend and began discussing my thesis project with a guy named William, who is the founder of an online game called Survivor facebook. He is the show's producer, editor, and host, and has managed to get hundreds of people to participate and apply, including ormer survivor players. He told me that he can connect me with a former Survivor player, which would provide valuable first-hand knowledge for my research paper.

I am breaking down exactly how he goes about making this online game as a possible option for my final paper and/or product,  which could potentially be creating my own game.

Day 17

Had my senior interview during class today, so not present to work on thesis.

Day 16

Went out of town to California. Not in class.

Day 15

Began reading the 48 Laws of Power today. Super interesting!

I have also began thinking about switching my final product idea. Originally I was set on writing a research paper but lately I've been wondering if maybe I could create my very own game. In it, I can use the game theory and sociological concepts I've read about to create a product in which those would be implemented. This is perfect to discuss with some people who I will meet in California on Wednesday who created their own online version of facebook and see where they advise me to go with it. Exciting stuff!

Also continued working on my annotated bibliography.

Day 14

I kind of feel stuck right now with my thesis. I am really struggling on where to go with my mentor. Luckily, I am going to California next week where I am planning on talking with a group of Survivor people so hopefully they can give me advice on where to go with my mentorship ideas.

Other than this continual issue, I began working on my annotated bibliography today. I am mainly using Rob Cesternino's The Evolution of Strategy as a HUGE source for the reality tv element in all this.

With regards to the more academic aspect of this, the books I am using as sources currently are:
- The 48 Laws of Power
- How to Win Friends and Influence People
- Game Theory: A very Short Introduction

Hopefully, I will spend this next week trying to gain more sources to reach 10 total.

I still need to pick up more social psychology books, so I need to narrow down my ideas on what exactly I want to study with that.

Day 13

So lately I have been listening to more podcasts on Survivor. I've been trying to find a few that focus on the game theory aspect, as opposed to just the entertainment side of things. The Dom and Colin podcast is the one that has been the best for me. They really are focusing on when can be and what should be the most rational, self interested move.

One moment that really defines this specifically in Survivor lore is the final 6 tribal council in Blood Vs. Water. In the case of a tie vote, there is a revote. The people who received equal number of votes are unable to vote and every other person must vote between those two people. If the votes are still tied afterward, then everyone must "draw rocks." The people who received the tie votes are immune (in addition to the person who won the immunity challenge) and everyone else must draw the rocks. The person who draws the different colored rock is out. People always say they would never do this because it leaves your hands to fate as opposed to guaranteeing 3 more days in the game by merely switching your vote. But at this tribal council, every single person drew rocks because they reused to switch their vote, and had a 33% chance of randomly drawing the bad rock. This was absolutely the right move for everyone though because if they had not gone to rocks, one alliance would have systematically eliminated the other alliance and the person who flipped their vote would be guaranteed to be eliminated right before the finals. SO you are extending your stay by 3 days, but guaranteeing a 100% chance of being eliminated before the finals, wheras by drawing the rocks you stand a 33% chance of being eliminated that day, but if you wind up on top, and the other alliance draws the bad rock, you stand a 100% chance of making the finals.

It is always about playing the odds and playing to win, not about playing to extend your Survivor stay by 3 more days.